Can I see the migration without the crowds?
Baseline decision available
The Decision in One Line
Crowds are manageable with strategic positioning and timing
What This Depends On
Key Assumptions
August is peak migration month with highest crowds and prices.
High confidencePrivate concessions enforce vehicle limits and offer more exclusive sightings.
High confidenceJune and late October offer migration with 40-60% fewer vehicles.
High confidenceThis might change if...
If crowds are unacceptable, visit June or late October instead of August.
If budget allows, private concessions provide crowd control.
If willing to work harder, remote crossing points reward effort.
If crowds are acceptable trade-off, August delivers highest crossing probability.
Trade-offs to Understand
What you gain
+
Shoulder months: Migration present with significantly fewer vehicles+
Private concessions: Vehicle limits ensure exclusivity+
Remote crossing points: 5-10 vehicles vs 30+ at popular pointsWhat you accept
-
Shoulder months: Slightly lower crossing probability-
Private concessions: Premium pricing (2-3x national park camps)-
Remote points: May require longer drives or mobile campingEvidence to Know
August is peak migration month with highest crowds and prices.
Well-established pattern
Safari planningPrivate concessions enforce vehicle limits and offer more exclusive sightings.
Well-established pattern
Safari planningJune and late October offer migration with 40-60% fewer vehicles.
Common but variable
Safari planningShoulder months: Migration present with significantly fewer vehicles
Trade-off considerationShoulder months: Slightly lower crossing probability
Trade-off considerationRelated Decisions
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