When is the best time to see the Great Migration?
Baseline decision available
The Decision in One Line
Migration timing is predictable by region, not by exact date
What This Depends On
Key Assumptions
The general migration pattern is predictable by season and region.
High confidenceExact timing varies by 2-4 weeks depending on rainfall.
High confidenceRiver crossing timing cannot be precisely predicted or guaranteed.
High confidenceThis might change if...
If river crossings are the priority, July-October in northern Serengeti or Mara is best.
If calving and predator action appeal, January-March in southern Serengeti.
If dates are fixed, adjust location expectations to where migration likely is.
If flexible, book last-minute to follow current migration reports.
Trade-offs to Understand
What you gain
+
Calving (Jan-Mar): Predator action, dramatic births+
Northern Serengeti/Mara (Jul-Oct): River crossings possible+
Shoulder months: Fewer crowds, still good wildlifeWhat you accept
-
Cannot guarantee seeing specific migration events-
Peak migration months have highest prices and crowds-
River crossings require luck and patienceEvidence to Know
The general migration pattern is predictable by season and region.
Well-established pattern
Safari planningExact timing varies by 2-4 weeks depending on rainfall.
Well-established pattern
Safari planningRiver crossing timing cannot be precisely predicted or guaranteed.
Well-established pattern
Safari planningCalving (Jan-Mar): Predator action, dramatic births
Trade-off considerationCannot guarantee seeing specific migration events
Trade-off considerationRelated Decisions
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